Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 36.343600 39.502931 43.001608 47.202566 52.163914 57.908065 65.171192
2025-08-10 31.871006 36.010788 40.930631 47.345228 55.711311 66.611299 82.583972
2025-08-17 28.642202 33.080402 38.575539 46.110632 56.594730 71.438421 95.841536
2025-08-24 26.270780 30.815138 36.609637 44.858378 56.926010 75.219357 108.545036
2025-08-31 25.501019 30.446731 36.971958 46.687240 61.820496 86.936064 140.077052
2025-09-07 23.918021 28.840107 35.460532 45.577619 61.943760 90.717664 158.325757
2025-09-14 22.634562 27.525232 34.214273 44.674201 62.185493 94.698684 179.743223
2025-09-21 21.183116 25.880922 32.365979 42.638943 60.178824 93.813641 187.960782
2025-09-28 20.397528 25.107938 31.707893 42.385260 61.220271 99.392490 220.426140
2025-10-05 20.460281 25.518903 32.797060 45.031715 67.982973 119.945292 340.346964
2025-10-12 19.705644 24.709599 31.987816 44.420640 68.372808 125.430230 408.939484
2025-10-19 19.354259 24.463054 32.015790 45.236614 71.786480 140.524436 605.447898
2025-10-26 18.729258 23.902896 31.705519 45.787150 75.626142 162.369637 1233.402924
2025-11-02 18.031640 23.208998 31.156714 45.903258 78.774837 186.417707 4571.677577
2025-11-09 17.169804 22.205367 30.013150 44.732545 78.541856 197.959739 144588.699785
2025-11-16 16.390951 21.282338 28.930242 43.543441 77.987389 208.313025 NaN
2025-11-23 16.196189 21.244746 29.311009 45.279657 85.668782 273.793770 NaN
2025-11-30 15.557651 20.473911 28.383862 44.226554 85.270296 292.101073 NaN
2025-12-07 15.001692 19.806614 27.591630 43.368450 85.261378 315.320059 NaN
2025-12-14 14.317204 18.906698 26.345899 41.432949 81.556472 303.135098 NaN
2025-12-21 13.939767 18.481992 25.908299 41.191472 83.132603 343.925672 NaN
2025-12-28 13.988384 18.741326 26.690738 43.708108 94.714627 569.925307 NaN
2026-01-04 13.601240 18.271811 26.129697 43.127494 95.329920 653.243510 NaN